Kalshi has launched its own research unit and released its first set of data, which it claims is more accurate than the forecasts typically issued by Wall Street.
Kalshi is moving beyond just trading infrastructure with the launch of its own research division that is dedicated to studying prediction markets and turning platform data into actionable insights, according to a December 22 announcement from the predictions market operator.
Kalshi’s new research arm will give academics access to proprietary information that is derived from its internal dataset.
According to the company, its platform holds what it calls “the world’s largest and highest quality repository of prediction market data,” and that will serve as a foundational tool for deeper forecasting and policy research.
Klashi’s data beats Wall Street forecasts
As part of the launch, Kalshi has released the first internal study showcasing research conducted by its in-house team, where it compared its inflation predictions with the Wall Street consensus forecasts.
The study found that Kalshi’s forecasts outperformed traditional estimates by 40%.
Meanwhile, when it measured performance one week before official inflation releases, Kalshi’s forecasts matched or beat Wall Street in 85% of cases.
Further, it proved more accurate with a 50% lower mean absolute error during times of market shocks, when forecasts typically deviate significantly from actual outcomes.
“This is particularly important, as policymakers, investors, and executives can now be confident in using Kalshi data as a strong signal of forthcoming market volatility, and be prepared to react accordingly,” it added.
Kalshi Research has already signed several high-profile partnerships with academics from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago.
In the coming months, Kalshi will also host its first prediction market conference, with the goal of bringing researchers together to share insights and build on early findings.
Kalshi launched as Kownig in 2018, and since then has worked to capture a federally regulated slice of the prediction market space.
Over the past year, the company has become a go-to infrastructure provider and currently powers the event contracts platform for major brands like Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Phantom.
Much of this momentum has come on the back of a key 2024 legal victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which labelled its inflation, politics, and sports contracts as legitimate federally regulated event contracts.
With this legal clarity, Kalshi’s real-time data has become a major source of economic and forecasting information that is being used by organizations such as CNBC, CNN, Google Finance, and even the National Hockey League.
In terms of growth, Kalshi has also drawn in a significant amount of funding across multiple rounds from top-tier investors like Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.
As of November, Kalshi has raised roughly $1.5 billion and is valued at $11 billion.
Kalshi’s US expansion faces resistance at the state level
Even though Kalshi’s markets were greenlighted by federal regulators, several US states have opposed its operations by bringing lawsuits that challenge the legality of its contracts.
Since the start of 2025, Kalshi has faced legal action in Nevada, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey.
The latest legal clash came from Connecticut, where lawmakers argue that Kalshi is running unlicensed online gambling under state law and have issued cease-and-desist orders accordingly.
Nevertheless, Kalshi has notched several important court victories, including in New Jersey, where a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction against enforcement, and in Washington, DC, where Kalshi successfully defended its right to operate political markets after the CFTC dropped its appeal.
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