A recent slowdown in Bitcoin mining activity could be setting the stage for a more constructive phase for the cryptocurrency, according to a new report from asset manager VanEck.
The firm said historical patterns suggest that periods of declining mining activity have often preceded positive returns for Bitcoin, even as miners face mounting financial pressure.
In its report titled “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck,” published on Monday, VanEck described falling network hashrate as a potential contrarian indicator.
While a shrinking hashrate typically reflects stress among miners, it has historically coincided with stronger price performance for BTC in subsequent months.
Hashrate declines and historical returns
VanEck’s analysis shows that since 2014, Bitcoin’s 90-day forward returns were positive 65% of the time when the network’s hashrate was contracting, compared with 54% when hashrate was expanding.
The firm said this pattern suggests that declines in mining activity may signal capitulation among weaker operators, leaving the network in a healthier position over the longer term.
“Some empirical evidence suggests drops in hashrate can be bullish for long-term holders,” VanEck analysts wrote, characterising the trend as a contrarian signal linked to miner exits during periods of financial stress.
The firm added that when hashrate compression persists for longer stretches, positive forward returns tend to occur more frequently and with greater magnitude.
The latest data show that Bitcoin’s hashrate fell about 4% in the month through December 15, marking the sharpest monthly decline since April 2024.
VanEck said the re-emergence of this pattern has drawn attention from investors assessing the balance between short-term miner stress and longer-term market implications.
Mounting pressure on mining economics
The decline in hashrate comes as mining profitability has deteriorated alongside recent weakness in Bitcoin’s price.
VanEck noted that breakeven electricity costs for mid-generation mining rigs, such as the Antminer S19 XP, have fallen significantly over the past year.
The firm estimated that breakeven power costs dropped from around $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to about $0.077 by mid-December 2025.
Breakeven electricity cost represents the maximum power price miners can pay without operating at a loss.
A sharp decline in this threshold typically indicates worsening economics for the sector, as only miners with access to cheaper electricity can continue operating profitably.
This dynamic often forces higher-cost operators to shut down equipment or exit the network altogether.
Bitcoin itself has remained volatile.
After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 roughly a month ago, the cryptocurrency fell to around $81,000 on November 21.
It was last down 1.8% over the past 24 hours to $87,278 at the time of writing.
Institutional buyers step in
While miners face increasing strain, VanEck said longer-term institutional buyers have been absorbing supply during the recent pullback.
The firm highlighted digital asset treasuries (DATs) as particularly active buyers over the past month.
Between mid-November and mid-December, DATs purchased approximately 42,000 Bitcoin, representing a 4% month-on-month increase and lifting total holdings to about 1.09 million Bitcoin.
VanEck said this marked the largest monthly accumulation by DATs since the period from mid-July to mid-August 2025, when more than 128,000 Bitcoin were added.
Looking ahead, VanEck suggested that many digital asset treasuries may shift their funding strategies.
Rather than relying on common stock issuance, the firm expects some DATs to finance future Bitcoin purchases through the sale of preference shares, potentially reshaping how institutional demand supports the market.
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