Bitcoin price traded sideways throughout the day as investors switched to risk-off mode after a series of negative headlines regarding heightened geopolitical tensions and a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve sentiment.
This led to a visible retreat among institutional players, who slowed their recent accumulation of spot ETFs to wait for clearer macroeconomic signals.
The total crypto market cap saw a modest recovery and briefly moved above the $2.5 trillion mark before facing resistance and stabilising around $2.49 trillion.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index saw no change over the past 24 hours, remaining stuck within “Fear” levels at 31.
This stagnant reading confirms that traders remain cautious, wary of potential bull traps as the market continues to grapple with the recent pullback from $76,000 highs.
Bitcoin’s rangebound action was mimicked across the broader altcoin market, with most major tokens posting little to no gains on the day.
Large-cap assets like Ethereum and Solana mirrored BTC’s lacklustre performance, confirming a temporary wait-and-see approach across the entire digital asset ecosystem.
Why is Bitcoin price stuck?
Bitcoin price is stuck as investors are reacting to a number of negative catalysts that have left the market searching for direction.
First, investors are reacting to the latest monetary policy data out of the US as the Fed has held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for the second consecutive meeting.
While the market previously hoped for a clearer path to rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled a cautious stance due to persistent economic uncertainty.
Inflation forecasts were actually revised upward to 2.7%, and “hot” Producer Price Index (PPI) data from February has led the market to price out an April rate cut almost entirely.
Meanwhile, skyrocketing energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are a major concern.
With Brent crude recently touching $119 per barrel, the surge has intensified global inflationary fears.
High energy costs are inflationary, which further pressures the Fed to keep interest rates high for a longer period.
Bitcoin’s market lull is also due to a downturn across Asian tech stocks, which have so far traded down on Friday morning.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1,866 points or 3.38%, while China’s Shanghai Composite was down 1.24%.
Yesterday, US tech stock markets also showed the same weakness, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing lower by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down over 0.25% each.
Bitcoin is widely considered a high-growth risk asset and often mirrors the trend of the global equity markets.
At the same time, investors looking for safety may also be rotating to gold, which jumped nearly 2% today as it moved back toward the $4,700 per ounce level.
This capital flight highlights a preference for traditional “safe haven” assets over digital ones during periods of active warfare and geopolitical instability.
Furthermore, institutional demand in Bitcoin appears to have cooled significantly.
Data from SoSoValue show that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the past several days, with over $250 million flowing out in the most recent session alone.
This suggests that the aggressive “buy the dip” mentality seen earlier in the year has been replaced by institutional de-risking.
Then there’s also the massive options expiry today, the largest March “triple-witching” event on record.
With $5.7 trillion in notional value set to expire across indexes, ETFs, and stocks, the forced rebalancing of positions is adding another layer of volatility and price suppression as traders navigate the “max pain” price points.
Will Bitcoin price go up?
Bitcoin price was trading just below $70,000, which is a key support area. So far, this level has acted as a strong demand zone as observed during yesterday’s session when the flagship crypto briefly fell to lows near $68,500 but quickly recovered back above the mark.
As long as this level remains intact and Bitcoin holds above the $69,450 threshold, the chances of a recovery toward the $72,500 resistance remain on the table.
However, if this zone fails to attract enough buying interest, it could send prices sliding further towards the $65,000 range.
This downside risk is particularly elevated as there’s a lack of fresh upside catalysts to counter the current risk-off sentiment caused by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and escalating geopolitical instability.
On X, crypto analyst Ali noted that large Bitcoin addresses were still accumulating around current price levels.
If this trend continues, it could help position Bitcoin for a potential rebound towards the $72,500 resistance.
Meanwhile, fellow analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed to what he described as a “curving” price structure forming on Bitcoin’s chart, arguing that BTC remains in a broader bullish setup despite the recent slowdown.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin has been forming a series of higher lows within an ascending channel, supported by a bullish MACD crossover observed earlier in February.
He noted that the current structure resembles a gradual curve that could accelerate if key levels continue to hold.
In his view, the $70,000 region remains critical to maintaining this formation.
A sustained hold above this level could allow Bitcoin to build momentum toward higher targets, with the next leg potentially extending toward the mid $80,000 range.
On the other hand, a breakdown below this zone would invalidate the pattern, forcing a reset in structure and delaying any immediate upside continuation.
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