ASML’s latest results underline how deeply artificial intelligence spending is reshaping the semiconductor supply chain.
The Dutch chip equipment maker reported a sharp jump in orders and issued stronger-than-expected guidance for 2026, signalling that demand from chipmakers building AI capacity remains resilient.
Investors tend to focus on bookings as a forward indicator, and the latest figures point to an acceleration in customer spending plans rather than a pause.
Alongside the guidance upgrade, ASML also unveiled a sizeable share buyback, reinforcing confidence in its longer-term cash generation.
Record bookings lift visibility
Orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 13.2 billion euros, more than double the level analysts had expected.
The figure marked a record quarter for the company and stood out against a backdrop of uneven conditions across parts of the global chip industry.
Financial performance for the quarter was broadly in line with expectations.
Net sales came in at 9.7 billion euros, just above forecasts, while net profit of 2.84 billion euros fell slightly short of consensus.
2026 sales guidance improves
ASML said it expects net sales in the current quarter to range between 8.2 billion and 8.9 billion euros.
More significantly, it forecast total sales for 2026 of between 34 billion and 39 billion euros.
The midpoint of that range sits above analyst estimates and suggests growth compared with 2025.
Earlier commentary had indicated that 2026 revenue was not expected to fall below the prior year.
The updated guidance appears to reflect a clearer path to expansion, supported by customer commitments already visible in the order book.
At the same time, ASML announced a 12 billion euro share buyback programme scheduled to run until Dec. 31, 2028.
The plan adds a capital return element to a period already defined by rising investment from customers.
AI demand drives capacity plans
The strength in orders aligns with broader signals from the AI ecosystem. Chipmakers supplying processors for data centres and advanced computing continue to report strong results, reinforcing expectations that infrastructure spending will persist.
Shortages in memory semiconductors have also driven prices higher, prompting forecasts that major memory producers will lift capacity over the next few years.
Such expansions typically translate into higher demand for ASML’s lithography systems, including its most advanced tools.
Analysts have pointed to specific customer plans, with some expecting additional extreme ultraviolet machines to be delivered in 2026 as capacity is added.
Management commentary during the period reflected this shift.
Customers have taken a more constructive view of medium-term demand, particularly tied to AI workloads, and that assessment has fed into firmer investment plans and equipment orders.
China exposure remains constrained
While global AI investment is boosting demand elsewhere, China remains a more complex market.
Export restrictions mean ASML cannot ship its most advanced machines to the country, and the company has already signalled a change in the revenue mix.
China accounted for 33% of ASML’s net system sales last year. For 2026, the company expects that share to fall to around 20%, implying a significant decline from the peaks seen in 2024 and 2025.
Investors continue to watch for how this adjustment balances against growth in other regions, particularly as new fabs come online to serve AI-related demand.
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