Trump administration’s surprising attack on Venezuela this past weekend could “embolden” China on Taiwan, says Kurt Campbell, the former US deputy secretary of state.
On January 3rd, Washington launched a military strike on Venezuela, detaining its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores.
White House justified the aggressive use of force, citing drug-trafficking charges against Maduro, and the need to dismantle what it called a “narco-dictatorship.”
However, experts are now concerned that Beijing may learn from this conflict – and follow suit in Taiwan.
US-Venezuela conflict may have repercussions for China-Taiwan
Speaking this morning with CNBC, Kurt Campbell – widely credited with shaping the Obama-era “Asia pivot” – said the Venezuela strike sends mixed signals to China.
It’s undeniable that what the US has done here emboldens autocratic leaders like those in China to think more ambitiously about territorial gains.
Washington’s ability to flout international law may encourage Beijing to believe it can do the same in its neighbourhood.
According to Campbell, President Xi Jinping could read US actions as validation of a philosophy that “maybe great powers are due a certain amount of largesse in the neighbourhood immediately surrounding them.”
For Taiwan, that raises unsettling questions about Beijing’s next move.
What’s stopping China from using force in Taiwan
On the positive note, however, Campbell isn’t entirely convinced that China will opt for a military strike on Taiwan as it faces significant constraints.
“Beijing has to always calculate what the likelihood of American engagement would be if there were shots fired in anger across the Taiwan Strait,” he explained.
Plus, China’s military – unlike the US forces – hasn’t fought a major ground war in over 50 years, dating back to Vietnam.
In fact, President Xi himself “doesn’t have enormous confidence in his own military,” Campbell told CNBC.
That lack of combat experience tempers Beijing’s appetite for direct confrontation. Moreover, the sheer scale of American military capacity demonstrated in Venezuela serves as a deterrent.
In short, Beijing will likely prefer to sow doubt and exert psychological pressure on Taiwan rather than risk an unpredictable clash with the US forces, he concluded.
How geopolitics may unfold in 2026
Looking ahead, Campbell predicted that diplomacy rather than aggression would dominate the US-China relationship in 2026.
According to him, President Xi will likely seek to publicly engage President Trump on Taiwan – aiming to shape perceptions without firing a shot.
“The threat of force is one thing – using it is another,” he noted.
All in all, the US-Venezuela episode confirms one thing: America is unpredictable under the Trump administration.
And while that creates anxiety for China, its own limitations make outright military action unlikely in the near term. Instead, the battle for Taiwan may be fought in the realm of influence and persuasion.
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