Prediction markets have turned markedly more bearish on Bitcoin following a sharp weekend sell-off that briefly pushed the cryptocurrency below $75,000 on Monday, erasing earlier gains and intensifying concerns about the rally’s durability.
On Polymarket, traders sharply increased wagers on further downside. The odds of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 at some point in 2026 climbed to 72% on Monday, with nearly $1 million in trading volume backing that outcome.
Other large bets included probabilities of 61% for a drop below $55,000 and 54% for a recovery back above $100,000 by year-end, highlighting a market divided between expectations of deeper pain and the possibility of a late-cycle rebound.
The shift in betting activity reflects a clear reversal in sentiment. Bitcoin has now given back gains made after President Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, with prices under sustained pressure since late last year.
Bitcoin fell about 11% from around $84,000 on Saturday to a nine-month low near $74,600 in early Monday trading before stabilizing near $77,600.
The decline has reinforced the view that institutional investors are reassessing exposure rather than adding to positions.
The most recent move lower also carried symbolic weight for Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed holder of Bitcoin, as prices fell below the firm’s average purchase cost for the first time since late 2023.
Analysts point to entrenched bear market conditions
Some market observers argue the latest sell-off is not an isolated shock, but part of a broader bearish trend that has been unfolding for months.
CryptoQuant reiterated that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since November 2025, when prices slipped below the 365-day moving average.
“Don’t try to find bottoms after a new leg down,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said in a post on X over the weekend. “Bear market bottoms take months to form.”
The warning contrasts with more optimistic projections issued late last year.
Grayscale Investments had predicted that Bitcoin could surpass its prior all-time high of $126,000 by June 2026, citing expectations of institutional demand and clearer US regulation.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein also projected Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, although both firms have since revised earlier, more aggressive targets amid slower inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin trades below ETF cost basis
Pressure has also intensified in the ETF market. According to Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn, Bitcoin is now trading below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs after the products recorded their second- and third-largest weekly outflows last month.
Total assets under management across US spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at approximately $113 billion, according to Coinglass.
These funds collectively hold around 1.28 million BTC, according to BiTBO, implying an average cost basis of roughly $87,830 per Bitcoin.
“This means the average Bitcoin ETF purchase is underwater,” Thorn said.
Over the past two weeks alone, the eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.8 billion in net outflows, including $1.49 billion last week and $1.32 billion the week before, according to CoinGlass data.
Since peaking at $165 billion in assets under management in October, US Bitcoin ETFs have seen their combined assets fall by 31.5%, while the price of Bitcoin has declined by roughly 40% over the same period.Price action underscores mounting stress
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