Bitcoin may already be several weeks into a bear market, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research, even as many analysts continue to forecast strong growth for the cryptocurrency in 2026.
Speaking on an episode of the Milk Road show on Thursday, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said that most of the indicators he tracks through the firm’s bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not yet recovered.
The index, which ranges from 0 to 100, aggregates multiple metrics, including network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity, to assess overall market conditions.
Key metrics signal a bearish shift
Moreno said the final confirmation, in his view, came from a technical signal: Bitcoin’s price falling below its one-year moving average.
This indicator, which reflects the average price of an asset over the past 12 months, is commonly used to identify long-term trends.
“For me the last confirmation, it’s a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno said, adding that this move typically confirms a transition into a bear market.
Bitcoin began 2025 trading at around $93,000 and climbed to a peak of $126,080 in October, according to data from CoinGecko.
However, it ended the year below its starting level, challenging expectations that the post-halving period would sustain higher prices.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $88,716.
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, Moreno’s assessment runs counter to predictions from analysts who have pointed to 2026 as a potential growth year for the asset.
Potential bottom in the $56,000–$60,000 range
Looking ahead, Moreno suggested that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could fall between $56,000 and $60,000 over the coming year.
His estimate is based on Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average price at which current holders acquired their coins, and on patterns observed in previous bear markets.
“Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price,” Moreno said.
During bull markets, prices tend to trade well above this level, but in bear markets, the realized price often acts as a baseline for potential lows.
A decline to the $56,000 level would represent a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high.
While significant, Moreno noted that this would be less severe than in past cycles, when Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of 70% to 80%.
A more resilient bear market environment
Moreno also argued that the current downturn appears more stable compared to previous bear markets.
Unlike 2022, which was marked by major industry collapses such as the Terra ecosystem, Celsius Network, and FTX, the current period has not seen similarly high-profile failures.
He pointed to structural changes in the market, including the presence of large institutional participants and exchange-traded funds that tend to buy on a more regular basis and are less likely to sell during downturns.
According to Moreno, this steady demand helps cushion price declines.
“There are other types of players now that buy more periodically,” he said, adding that demand in past bear markets typically contracted more sharply.
With a broader base of investors and more established companies in the sector, Moreno suggested that Bitcoin’s current bear market, if confirmed, may prove less volatile than those of the past.
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