Grayscale analysts are forecasting a renewed surge in the cryptocurrency market, predicting that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 as demand accelerates and regulatory clarity improves in the United States.
The outlook was published in Grayscale’s 2026 report, released on Monday, in which the digital asset manager outlined its expectations for market performance and identified ten key investment themes shaping the year ahead.
The firm said structural changes underway in digital asset investing are likely to attract new capital and broaden adoption, particularly among institutional and advised wealth investors.
“We expect 2026 to accelerate structural shifts in digital asset investing, which have been underpinned by two major themes: macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity,” Grayscale said in the report.
Bitcoin seen benefiting from macro pressures
Commenting specifically on Bitcoin, Grayscale said the world’s largest cryptocurrency is likely to reach a fresh record within the first six months of 2026, supported by rising demand for alternatives to traditional currencies.
The firm argued that fiat currencies face increasing debasement risks due to growing public sector debt and the long-term implications for inflation.
“As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue rising as well, in our view,” Grayscale said.
The report also highlighted the contrast between the uncertainty surrounding fiat currencies and the predictable supply dynamics of digital assets.
Grayscale noted that while monetary systems remain exposed to fiscal pressures, Bitcoin’s issuance schedule remains fixed, with the 20 millionth coin expected to be mined in March 2026.
“Digital money systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum that offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply will be in rising demand, in our view, due to rising fiat currency risks,” the firm said.
Regulatory shift seen as major tailwind
Grayscale also pointed to what it described as a notable change in the US regulatory environment over recent years.
The firm cited dropped enforcement cases against crypto companies, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, and legislative progress as signs of a more constructive stance.
“In 2024, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETPs came to market. In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and regulators shifted their approach toward crypto, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability,” Grayscale said.
Looking ahead, the asset manager expects bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to become law in 2026, which it believes will deepen integration between public blockchains and traditional finance and potentially enable on-chain issuance by both startups and established firms.
The firm also added that it sees more crypto ETFs hitting the markets next year.
“We expect more crypto assets to be available through exchange-traded products in 2026. These vehicles have had a successful start, but many platforms are still conducting due diligence and working to incorporate crypto into their asset-allocation process,” the research noted added.
Key themes for 2026
Beyond price forecasts, Grayscale outlined ten investment themes it expects to shape the crypto landscape in 2026, “reflecting the breadth of use cases emerging across public blockchain technology.”
Among the key themes identified were growth in the stablecoin market driven by the GENIUS Act, asset tokenization reaching an inflection point, expansion in decentralized finance led by lending markets, and staking becoming a default feature for investors.
“In 2026 we expect to see the practical results: stablecoins integrated into cross-border payment services, stablecoins as collateral on derivatives exchanges, stablecoins on corporate balance sheets, and stablecoins as an alternative to credit cards in online consumer payments,” the firm said.
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