China’s exports posted a significantly stronger-than-expected rebound in November, as manufacturers moved quickly to ship out inventory following a temporary easing of tensions with the United States.
The improvement reflects both opportunistic front-loading of shipments and the short-term boost provided by a trade deal reached after high-level talks between Beijing and Washington.
Outbound shipments rose 5.9% in US dollar terms from a year earlier, according to customs data released Monday.
The reading sharply exceeded economists’ forecasts of 3.8% growth in a Reuters poll and reversed October’s unexpected 1.1% contraction — the country’s first decline since March 2024.
Imports were more subdued, rising 1.9% year-on-year and falling short of the anticipated 3% increase.
Soft domestic demand, held back by prolonged weakness in the property sector and continued employment uncertainty, limited the pace of inbound shipments.
The import figure was still stronger than the 1% rise recorded in October.
Over the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports expanded 5.4% from the same period in 2024, while imports declined 0.6%.
The country’s trade surplus widened to $1.076 trillion, up 21.6% year-on-year.
Trade truce provides short-term lift for manufacturers
Chinese manufacturers gained renewed optimism after President Xi Jinping and the US President reached a one-year truce during their meeting in South Korea in late October.
The agreement paused a range of restrictive measures, offering temporary breathing room for exporters navigating an uncertain global environment.
Under the deal, both sides agreed to roll back steep tariffs and ease export controls covering critical minerals and advanced technologies.
Beijing also committed to purchasing additional American soybeans and enhancing cooperation with Washington to curb fentanyl flows.
Despite the easing, US tariff levels on Chinese goods remain elevated at around 47.5%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
China’s tariffs on US imports stand at roughly 32%.
The export boost, however, comes against a backdrop of persistent manufacturing weakness.
Official data showed factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, with new orders still in decline.
A private survey focused on exporters similarly pointed to an unexpected return to contraction.
Policy easing expected as growth pressures mount
Chinese policymakers are preparing for the annual Central Economic Work Conference later this month, where they will set broad priorities for 2026 before formalizing targets at the “Two Sessions” in March.
Goldman Sachs expects Beijing to maintain its growth target for 2026 at “around 5%,” a level that would require additional stimulus to offset a likely soft patch in the fourth quarter.
The bank forecasts that authorities will raise the augmented fiscal deficit ceiling by one percentage point of GDP, reduce policy rates by 20 basis points in total, and intensify measures aimed at stabilizing the property market.
Meanwhile, the yuan’s recent appreciation — with the offshore currency strengthening nearly 5% since April to 7.0669 per dollar — has not yet slowed export momentum.
Despite achieving steady annual GDP growth of about 5% since 2023, China still “urgently needs to curb its export dependence and pivot towards domestic consumption” to sustain long-term expansion, private equity executive Weijian Shan warned in a recent FT opinion piece.
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