RICE IMPORTS, expected at around 4.2 million metric tons (MMT) this year, are intended to build up reserves which will bridge the lean period at the start of 2025, a former Department of Agriculture (DA) official said.
At the World Rice Conference Summit on Wednesday, former Undersecretary Leocadio S. Sebastian said: “The Philippines imported 3.8 million MT as of Oct. 31; that is the volume that has already arrived, and the DA projects that it will probably reach 4.2 million MT by the end of the year.”
“I think 400,000 MT… would be the minimum. It could be more, but it will depend again on how our traders react to the global market,” he added.
He said palay (unmilled rice) production is well behind the year-earlier pace because of crop damage.
“That is not including the effect of Kristine. Total production this year will be much lower than the 20 million produced last year,” he said.
He said the rice inventory ending balance at the close of 2024 needs to be sufficient to get through the lean periods, the next of which starts in January.
“Lean months are when the production is less than demand. So we are consuming more rice than what we are producing. These periods are July to Sept. 15 as well as January-February,” he said.
“Because of the projected shortfall this year, we may have to bring in more supply, either in December or in January, from my point of view,” he said.
“Next year, I think we really should continue to be a good market for exporters in Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, India, and Pakistan,” he added.
The DA has estimated palay production to drop to a four-year low of 19.41 MMT in 2024, dampened by tropical cyclone activity.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Philippine rice imports to hit 4.7 MMT this year. — Justine Irish D. Tabile
