JUNE exports and imports fell 2.8% and 2.4% month on month, respectively, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Friday.
Citing preliminary data, the PSA, in its Seasonally Adjusted Exports and Imports report, said June exports declined to $6.35 billion from $6.53 billion in May, while June imports came in at $10.21 billion, down from $10.46 billion a month earlier.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort attributed the month-on-month decline to weak Chinese economic data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
“Higher prices and interest rates locally and globally also partly weighed on global trade after aggressive US policy rate moves in an effort to bring down inflation back to the central bank targets amid a risk of economic slowdown in the US,” Mr. Ricafort said in a text message.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last month to 5.25%-5.50%.
Since March 2022, the US central bank has raised rates by a cumulative 525 bps.
In the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, US job openings were down 338,000 to 8.827 million on the last day of July, the lowest level since March 2021.
Meanwhile, China’s economy expanded on a seasonally adjusted basis by 0.8% in the second quarter, decelerating from 2.2% in the first quarter.
Year on year, Chinese gross domestic product grew 6.3% in the three months to June, from 4.5% in the first quarter.
Mr. Ricafort said that trade data may improve in the next few quarters as inflation weakens, though he noted that reinflation risk remains.
“The Fed sees a reduced risk of a US recession (which could) support a recovery in global trade,” he said. — Mariedel Irish U. Catilogo
