The Biden Administration is doing its damnedest to incite panic and provoke a war with Russia. There apparently are no adults left in Washington, DC. Start with Biden’s joke of a National Security Advisor:
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday that Americans in Ukraine should leave “as soon as possible,” CNN reports. The UK Foreign Office also urged its citizens to leave “while commercial means are available,” the BBC reports. Japan, Latvia, Norway and the Netherlands have also called on their citizens to leave.
It is not only NATO countries warning their citizens to flee. Israel ordered dependents to leave Kiev:
Israel said on Friday it was evacuating relatives of staff at its embassy in Kyiv, citing “an aggravation of the situation” in an apparent reference to the crisis between Ukraine and Russia.
The Foreign Ministry statement further urged Israelis to avoid travelling to Ukraine and those there to “to avoid areas of tension”.
A massive propaganda effort is underway in the United States and the UK to prepare their respective citizens for a looming war:
An invasion by Russia “is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks,” while the subsequent ground attack would disrupt communications as well. “No one would be able to count on air, rail, or road departures once military action got under way,” said Sullivan.
Sullivan’s phrasing matched that of PBS National Security correspondent Nick Schifrin, who shortly before the White House press conference cited anonymous US officials to claim that Russia had in fact decided to attack. When asked about these reports, Sullivan said he had “not yet seen” them but they were wrong, and that the White House does not believe Russia has made a decision either way.
We have been through this kind of deception before. In the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the American public were fed a daily buffet of lies about weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein conspiring with Osama Bin Laden. All a pretext to justify attacking Iraq.
But Iraq did not have a genuine Army capable of fighting us and the United States enjoyed complete air supremacy over Iraq. What we lacked was a functional plan to pacify Iraq and ensure there was a functioning, effective government after we ousted Saddam and his Bath party. Even with those advantages, the United States failed to pacify Iraq. We declared victory and left after 10 years of bloodshed. And to what purpose?
Now we are poking the Russian bear. The Russians deploy troops and military equipment and resources on their border with Ukraine and we cry foul. Yet we ignore our own provocative actions of sending millions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine and deploying offensive military forces in Poland and Romania. And we have troops in the Ukraine (“trainers”). I return again asking you to consider how we would react if Russia was doing the same thing in Mexico. We would send our troops to the southern border and build up our capabilities to stop a Russian backed invasion of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California.
Our intelligence community, which failed to predict the collapse of the Afghan Government last August, appears to be engaged in wild speculation:
Pressed to provide details, Sullivan said the US intelligence community has assessed that Russian troop build-up near Ukraine suggests a “very distinct possibility that Russia might choose” to take military action “on a reasonably swift timeframe,” adding there is a “credible prospect” that this might happen in the coming days.
The intelligence community has “sufficient confidence” that there is a “distinct possibility” Putin “might” order an invasion before February 20, Sullivan told reporters, and that a “rapid assault on the city of Kiev” is considered a possibility.
He also repeated State Department spokesman Ned Price’s claim that Russia is working to fabricate a pretext for invasion with a “false flag operation” in eastern Ukraine. Just like Price, Sullivan offered no evidence for the claim.
Words like “might” are not terms that suggest the intel community is dealing with hard intel–such as an intercept of a Russian war plan or a conversation between Putin and Russian generals. If I am the Russians the tidal wave of dire warnings from the United States and the United Kingdom coupled with the deployment of NATO forces towards Russia’s western border would have me believing that the West is keen on provoking a fight in order to consolidate power in Ukraine.
The biggest danger is that we are doing the equivalent of loading a slingshot, pulling it back and aiming it at someone we have been heckling relentlessly for the last 7 years. If we negligently or mistakenly fire we could ignite a horrific conflagration.
The wild card in this equation remains the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). I have seen no reports about their troop movements and activities. If the UAF decides to attack the militia forces in the Donbass and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine with US and UK weapons, I believe this is a red line that will provoke a Russian military response. Once that line is crossed the potential for the conflict to escalate into a full-blown war is great.
Are you ready to send your sons and daughters to die on behalf of Ukraine?
ICSI believes that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will begin sometime between Sunday 13th February 2022 and Saturday 19th February 2022, based on the available Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the latest assessment from the US Intelligence Community.
(2/3)— International Centre for Strategic Intelligence (@ICSI_OSINT) February 11, 2022
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